“Not by might, nor by power, but by My Spirit,” says Yahweh Sabaoth.
(Zechariah 4: 6)
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Turkey in the north. Israel in the south. Russia, Iran, and Syria in the middle. What could go wrong?
Syria is a real quagmire. See “Idlib: ‘If an offensive takes place, it will be a bloodbath’”:
As the threat of an all-out Syrian government offensive looms large over Idlib, Qays, a 26-year-old father of two, says he and his young family are running out of options.
“There’s no place for us to go. If an offensive takes place, it will be a bloodbath,” he told Al Jazeera on Saturday.
Qays, a volunteer with the civil defence group known as the White Helmets, is one of the almost three million people crammed in the northwestern province of Idlib, the last remaining rebel-held province in war-ravaged Syria.
For days now, President Bashar al-Assad‘s forces have been encircling Idlib, seemingly ready to launch what has been described as the last major battle in a long-running civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of civilians, displaced millions and left the country in ruins.
If the assault takes place, Idlib will be “the perfect storm”, UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura warned this week. A battle, he said, would affect millions of civilians and could see both sides use chemical weapons.
Similarly, Filippo Grandi, the head of the UN’s refugee crisis, cautioned that an all-out attack would cause renewed displacement while exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.
‘Nothing to do but wait’
After vowing to take back “every inch” of Syria, Assad, backed by his Russian and Iranian allies, has managed in recent years to roll back rebels from territories they had previously gained – from Aleppo, through Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus, to Deraa, the birthplace of the 2011 uprising.
Like Qays – who was displaced with his family from Deraa after Assad’s forces took over the city in July – hundreds of thousands of civilians and rebels from across Syria are now in Idlib, dubbed a “dumping ground” for those evacuated from other battlefields.
“We know there’s nothing for us to do but wait,” says Qays, recalling the grueling journey from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, where he stayed for two weeks, before joining scores of families onto buses that transported them to Idlib.
Today, more than half the of the families based in Idlib are from other parts of Syria, many of whom reside in overcrowded camps.
Idlib—War is Coming to Town
It’s not a question of “if”. It’s a question of “when”. War in Idlib is inevitable, and it could get messy. See “Beyond the Lines: Erdogan’s Dilemma”:
Syrian regime and Russian forces are preparing for an offensive into Idlib province in northwest Syria. The attack on Idlib is set to mark the final major action in the war between the Assad regime and the insurgency against it.
Moscow has moved 10 warships and two submarines into the waters off the western coast of Syria. This represents the largest concentration of Russian naval forces since the beginning of Moscow’s direct intervention in the civil war in Syria in September 2015.
The regime, meanwhile, is dispatching ground forces from further south, as its forces complete a recent offensive against Islamic State fighters in the Sweida area.
Idlib is set to form the final chapter in a Russian-led strategy that commenced nearly three years ago. According to this approach, rebel-controlled areas were first bombed and shelled into submission and then offered the chance to “reconcile” – that is, surrender to the regime. As part of this process, those fighters who did not wish to surrender were given the option of being transported with their weapons to rebel-held Idlib.
This approach was useful for the regime side. It allowed the avoidance of costly last-stand battles by the rebels. It also contained within it the expectation that a final battle against the most determined elements of the insurgency would need to take place, once there was nowhere for these fighters to be redirected. That time is now near.
There are around 70,000 rebel fighters inside Idlib. The dominant factions among them are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the renamed Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda franchise in Syria) and the newly formed, Turkish-supported Jaish al-Watani (National Army), which brings together a number of smaller rebel groups.
The presence of the Turkish-supported Jaish al-Watani among the Idlib rebels reflects the complex, broader political/diplomatic situation surrounding the upcoming Idlib offensive. The offensive will not mark the end of conflict in Syria. Rather, once Idlib is returned to the regime, the dynamic in Syria will conclusively shift – from one at least partially led by autonomous political-military organizations, to one entirely directed from above by sundry state interests, which make use of various militia groups as proxies.
AS THIS dynamic emerges, it represents a particular dilemma for Turkey. Ankara in the early stages of the war abandoned a burgeoning relationship with the Assad regime to throw its full weight behind the Sunni Arab rebellion. It saw the insurgency (correctly) as one of a number of conservative Sunni Arab movements then sweeping the Middle East. The AKP government envisaged itself as the natural patron and leader of these movements. Unfortunately for the Turks, the Sunni Islamist wave was brief and has left little permanent imprint on the region.
With the entry of the Russians onto the Syrian battlefield, and the decision by the US not to offer major support to the rebels, the insurgency lost any hope of defeating the Assad regime.
Turkey then transferred its focus in Syria to two areas: preventing the Kurdish area of control in the northeast from extending across the 900-km. Syrian-Turkish border in its entirety, and, slightly more nebulously, preventing the complete defeat and destruction of the rebels, which if allowed to happen would represent a humiliating failure for the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
What Can Go Wrong? Plenty.
Turkey’s President Erdogan can’t afford another “humiliating failure”. He has had way too many of those already.
For obvious reasons, Israel can’t afford to allow Iran to have even a toehold on its northern border.
Russia can’t afford to fail at this critical juncture.
Iran can’t afford to be in Syria, period. The Iranian people are suffering economically already, and U.S. sanctions on Iran are scheduled to kick back in in a few weeks. If the mullahs lose their bets in Syria, the probability of a revolution in Iran will increase exponentially.
Yahweh is in Control
The complex Middle East situation is about to become more complicated. It’s a wonderful script. It’s better than an action-packed Hollywood blockbuster, because Yahweh wrote it.
See “Israel renews threat to hit Iran targets in Syria after cooperation deal inked”.
Turkey in the north. Israel in the south. Russia, Iran, and Syria in the middle. A lot can happen that no one anticipates.
Meanwhile Back Home in the United States
Europe is coming apart at the seams. One South American country after another is coming unglued. Russia is hamstrung in Syria. China is facing off with the U.S. on the trade front.
Meanwhile, President Trump is growing the U.S. economy, extricating the U.S. from deals (trade and others) that made the U.S. vulnerable during times like these, and taking a firm stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel.
The U.S. has work to do, and Yahweh is preparing us to do our job.
A Little Prophecy—Isaiah 17
The oracle concerning Damascus:
“Behold, Damascus is about to be removed from being a city and will become a fallen ruin. The cities of Aroer are forsaken; they will be for flocks to lie down in, and there will be no one to frighten them. The fortified city will disappear from Ephraim, and sovereignty from Damascus and the remnant of Aram; they will be like the glory of the sons of Israel,” declares Yahweh Sabaoth.
“Now in that day the glory of Jacob will fade, and the fatness of his flesh will become lean. It will be even like the reaper gathering the standing grain, as his arm harvests the ears, or it will be like one gleaning ears of grain in the valley of Rephaim [Emek Refaim]. Yet gleanings will be left in it like the shaking of an olive tree, two or three olives on the topmost bough, four or five on the branches of a fruitful tree,” declares Yahweh, the Elohim of Israel.
“In that day man will have regard for his Maker and his eyes will look to the Holy One of Israel. He will not have regard for the altars, the work of his hands, nor will he look to that which his fingers have made, even the Asherim and incense stands. In that day their strong cities will be like forsaken places in the forest, or like branches which they abandoned before the sons of Israel; and the land will be a desolation. For you have forgotten the Elohim of your salvation and have not remembered the rock of your refuge. Therefore you plant delightful plants and set them with vine slips of a strange god. In the day that you plant it you carefully fence it in, and in the morning you bring your seed to blossom; but the harvest will be a heap in a day of sickliness and incurable pain.”
“Alas, the uproar of many peoples who roar like the roaring of the seas, and the rumbling of nations who rush on like the rumbling of mighty waters! The nations rumble on like the rumbling of many waters, but He will rebuke them and they will flee far away, and be chased like chaff in the mountains before the wind, or like whirling dust before a gale.”
“At evening time, behold, there is terror! Before morning they are no more. Such will be the portion of those who plunder us and the lot of those who pillage us.”
Declaring the End from the Beginning
Yahweh knows what He is doing. He told us the end from the beginning. Our job is to follow Him.
I wish I could give you an exact timeline. Maybe one day I will.
“Who is this who comes from Edom, with garments of glowing colors from Bozrah, this One who is majestic in His apparel, marching in the greatness of His strength? ‘It is I who speak in righteousness, mighty to save.’” (Isaiah 63: 1)
That’s Yahweh speaking.
The picture above was taken at the top of the Mount of Olives. Katie, Natalie, and Danielle are pointing in the direction of Edom. It’s just across the Arava and a little to the south.
And Yahweh’s feet with touch down at the top of the Mount of Olives.
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“The glory which You have given Me I have given to them, that they may be one, just as We are one; I in them and You in Me, that they may be perfected in unity, so that the world may know that You sent Me, and loved them, even as You have loved Me. Father, I desire that they also, whom You have given Me, be with Me where I am, so that they may see My glory which You have given Me, for You loved Me before the foundation of the world.” (John 17: 22-24)
