February 23, 2017 SnyderTalk: France’s Muslim Demographic Future

“Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,” says Yahweh Sabaoth. (Zechariah 4: 6)



Yves Mamou—France’s Muslim Demographic Future: 

From time to time, France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) offers a glimpse of the ethnic composition of French society. The study, “Being born in France to an immigrant parent” (Être né en France d’un parent immigré), published in February 2017, is one of them.

Like few other glimpses, the Insee study offers a partial view of the ethnic composition of the French population. A statistical breakdown — with the answer to the perennial question: how many Muslims in France? — would be perceived as discriminatory and outrageous. Given France’s “integration model,” nobody should dare identify people by their origins, religion, color of skin and so on. A Frenchman is a Frenchman, whatever the color of his skin or his religion, and any measurement of the sub-Saharan population — for example, their level of education, that of their children, the type of jobs their parents are doing, how many times they go to mosque or if they have spent time in prison — is illegal, discriminatory and racist. Sub-Saharan populations must disappear in aggregate data about French people.

The study, however, provides some telling information. In 2015, 7.3 million people born in France had at least one immigrant parent (11% of the population). Of these 7.3 million people, 45% are of European origin, most of whom are children of immigrants who arrived in France from Spain (8%) or Italy (12%) as early as the 1930s, or from Portugal in the 1970s onwards. One can assume, although it is not written in the study, that these people are of Christian origin.

Another group is composed of Africans. 42% of the 7.3 million children born in France to an immigrant parent are of African background, mainly North Africa. They came from Algeria (15%), Morocco (11%), Tunisia (5%) and sub-Saharan Africa (11%). Although it is also not specified in the study, it would seem that the great majority are Muslim.

Another group, children from Turkish migrant families, represent 4% of the 7.3 million. These people are classified as Asian; they are not included in the African and Muslim group. Most of these Turks are also presumably Muslim.

A conclusion therefore would assume that 46% of the descendants of immigrants are Muslim and 45% are Christian. The remaining 9% are from East Asia or the Americas.


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SnyderTalk Comment:

More than 15 years ago while I was a full-time professor, I told a friend in Charlottesville that France as we knew it was history.  The writing was on the wall.  The Muslim population in France had grown in size.  As a group, they represented a large enough minority to influence political decisions at the margin.  Even more, the birth rate among Muslims was higher than the birth rate among other French groups.

I wasn’t guessing.  I was explaining facts.

Politically, smaller minorities (i.e., Muslims in France) have tremendous influence in determining what government policies will be because larger minority groups (traditional political parties) need their support to win a majority of the vote.  Thus, smaller minorities make deals with larger minorities and get things in return.  It’s the way the system works. It’s not guesswork.

From 2005-2010, the birth rate among Muslims in France was 2.8.  For non-Muslims, it was 1.9.  That may not sound like a big difference, but it’s huge.

2.1 is the breakeven birthrate.  If the birth rate for a group falls below 2.1, it will shrink as a percent of the population.  If it’s above 2.1, it will grow as a percent of the population.  That’s simple math.

This is what it means in a practical sense:

  • The French Muslim population is already large enough to influence political decisions far beyond what a person should expect given their size as a percent of the population. That’s the nature of politics.
  • The French Muslim population is on a trajectory that will make it a/the major group in France no later than 2050. As I said, that’s simple math.

Islamists are a menace to society, and they have a stronghold in France.  That’s a fact.  France’s problems have just begun.  Again, that’s not guesswork.  It’s simply a matter of connecting the dots.

France is not the only European country facing this demographic crisis in the making.  Germany is a close second and other European countries aren’t far behind.

My friend in Charlottesville had a customer in France.  He called him and told him what I said. The French guy told my friend that I was wrong.  He told my friend that everything was peaches and cream in France.

That was 15 years ago.  The French guy  was blind to reality.  As a nation, France is still blind to reality.  So is Germany.

I wasn’t wrong then, and I’m not wrong now.

Switching Gears

A lot is being said about President Trump’s so-called “Jewish problem” by the self-professed “intellectual elite” among us and by other “liberal progressive” wackos.  Their criticism stems from the president’s recent comment that he will not tolerate those who threaten violence against Jewish people.  Some of the very people he promised to protect are mocking him.

See “Donald Trump’s Jewish Problem”.

Slate is a far-left Democrat publication that is part of the around-the-clock bashing of President Trump.  Putting Slate in perspective, the people who run it had nothing but good things to say about President Obama even while he made deals that threaten Israel’s existence.

The article offers as proof of the president’s so-called “Jewish problem” a comment made by the executive director of the Anne Frank Center for Mutual Respect, Steven Goldstein.  He called Trump’s promise “a pathetic asterisk of condescension after weeks in which he and his staff have committed grotesque acts and omissions reflecting anti-Semitism, yet day after day have refused to apologize and correct the record.”

President Trump doesn’t have a problem, but Steven Goldstein does.  Since the day he announced his candidacy, the president has said as plainly as it can be said that he will stand by Israel.  A few days ago, his U.N. ambassador, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, told the world that the U.S. will no longer stand by idly while the U.N. Security Council bashes Israel for no good reason and ignores the actions of notorious human rights violators.

Mr. Goldstein is oblivious to the truth.  It’s not in him.  He doesn’t listen, and he doesn’t watch.  He just attacks without cause.  Regrettably, many Jewish people in the U.S. are like him.  They are Democrats through-and-through regardless of the facts.  President Trump trounced their darling on the left to win the job, and they are trying to make his life miserable.

Thankfully, the American people rejected Hillary Clinton and everything she stands for.  Get over it, Mr. Goldstein.  Grow up and learn to say “thank you.”  We will do everything within our power to protect Israel.  We will even protect people like you no matter how ridiculous you are.

Concerning Slate, I have just one thing to say: if you can’t be professional, try faking it.



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“The glory which You have given Me I have given to them, that they may be one, just as We are one; I in them and You in Me, that they may be perfected in unity, so that the world may know that You sent Me, and loved them, even as You have loved Me. Father, I desire that they also, whom You have given Me, be with Me where I am, so that they may see My glory which You have given Me, for You loved Me before the foundation of the world.” (John 17: 22-24)

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