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The Michigan Primary is Shaping up to be a Two-Horse Race
The Michigan primary is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Michigan is an important state for Romney, in particular, because he was born and raised there, and he grew up as the son of George Romney, a prominent Michigan automaker and former three-term Michigan governor. A Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll that was taken before the debate on Wednesday night showed that Santorum had a 3-point advantage over Romney — 37% to 34%. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich came in at 10% and 7%, respectively, both of them behind “Undecided/refused.”
Among the poll’s more noteworthy findings,
- Romney led Santorum among women 37% to 33%;
- Santorum led Romney among men 41% to 29%;
- Romney led Santorum among pro-choice voters 43% to 18%;
- Santorum led Romney among pro-life voters 48% to 29%;
- Romney led Santorum among moderate voters by 51% to 17%; and
- Santorum led Romney among conservative voters and voters who profess no political leaning by 46% to 27% and 54% to 27%, respectively.
Judging by the poll’s results, Romney’s Mormon faith could play an important part in the Michigan primary and possibly in the rest of the nation as well. Santorum had a 48% to 19% advantage over Romney among religious voters who are other than Catholic or Protestant, and those who are “Evangelical/Born-again Christians” leaned toward Santorum by 51% to 24%. Even so, according to the Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll, Michigan was still in play. Romney was closing the gap, and 45% of poll participants said that they were willing to change their minds.
The latest Gallup Tracking Poll among registered Republican voters nationally that was taken between February 18-22 mirrored the Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll. Santorum came from nowhere, and with his three-state sweep in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri, he surged to a lead, but he has plateaued and is now dropping. Conversely, Romney showed a dramatic drop in support following Santorum’s hat trick, but he has leveled off and is starting to rise again.
By Friday, a new Rasmussen poll showed that Romney had eliminated the gap completely and captured a 6-point lead in Michigan:
“True to a primary season already marked by sudden and surprising ups and downs, Mitt Romney has jumped back into the lead in Michigan’s Republican Primary race. The vote’s on Tuesday.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates.”
Likewise, a Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll released on Friday showed that Romney has a 3-point leader over Santorum in Michigan:
“Fueled by a strong debate performance Wednesday night, Mitt Romney continues to lead Rick Santorum in the latest Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for MIRS (Michigan Information & Research Service) the night after the CNN Debate. The two front runners are still in a statistical dead heat, although Romney (36%) has increased his lead by 1% over Rick Santorum (33%) while Ron Paul (12%) replaced Newt Gingrich (9%) in third place. Undecided voters dropped in half to 11%.”
Whether Santorum will eventually go the way of Newt Gingrich remains to be seen. Gingrich came on like gangbusters, too, and then he experienced a precipitous decline. The South Carolina primary breathed new life into Gingrich’s campaign, but he plummeted again after a dismal showing in Florida. That said, if we haven’t learned anything else during the GOP primary season, we should have learned this: You should take polling data with a grain of salt. Polls tell us how voters feel about potential candidates at any given moment, but as my colleague at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato, said,
“Real votes make clear what polls cannot fully pick up. The Republican election season has been shaped by two forces, other than the obvious one to oust President Obama. First, the strongest potential candidates did not enter the fray, and the remaining contenders do not satisfy most GOP voters. At every polling opportunity, Republicans have expressed their desire for a wider choice. Put another way, Republicans would love to combine the economic acumen of Mitt Romney, the social conservatism of Rick Santorum, the debating skills of Newt Gingrich and the enthusiasm of young voters for Ron Paul into one candidate. That feat must await several generations of advances in genetic engineering.”
A few days ago, PJ Media conducted a presidential poll, but instead of including only the announced candidates, they added Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice to the mix. Their results showed that only Santorum and Rice would narrowly defeat Obama as of February 21-22, but Rice is an unproven political commodity. Although she has served as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, she has never run for public office and she has not been vetted the way that the announced candidates have. Thus, it doesn’t make sense to place too much weight on her showing in the PJ Media poll. To read the entire editorial, click here.
This SnyderTalk editorial first appeared in PJ Media on February 27, 2012.
To see other SnyderTalk editorials, click here.
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Jeremiah 47: 1-2
That which came as the word of Yahweh to Jeremiah the prophet concerning the Philistines, before Pharaoh conquered Gaza. Thus says Yahweh: “Behold, waters are going to rise from the north and become an overflowing torrent, and overflow the land and all its fullness, the city and those who live in it; and the men will cry out, and every inhabitant of the land will wail.”
Falsely Accused is a true story about a young woman who was accused of committing a double homicide. It’s about a travesty of justice, and it reveals Yahweh intervening in the life of a believer to rescue her from danger in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. Everyone will enjoy the book, but young people in particular need to read it because the mistakes made that led to the problem could have been avoided. They were the kinds of mistakes that young people are prone to make. As they say, forewarned is forearmed. Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
Hosea 4: 6
My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge.
Stand! is a gripping novel about the subterfuge surrounding the global warming debate. It lays out the facts concerning climate change through an exciting story that pits a college professor and his research collaborator against corrupt university administrators and radical environmentalists. Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
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Top 5 diggtm articles yesterday:
- Dear Rick Santorum, America Elects Presidents Not Popes
- Santorum says he ‘almost threw up’ after reading JFK speech on separation of church and…
- What’s Behind The Rise In Gas Prices?
- Daily Kos: GOP Time Machine (Pic)
- Rick Santorum Announces He Doesn’t Believe In the Separation of Church and State
The Jerusalem Post:
- UN Middle East Envoy Participates in “International Conference for the Defense of Jerusalem”
- IDF discovers second large bomb on Egypt-Israeli border
- Syria approves new constitution amid bloodshed
- Rivlin to Russia: Stop Iran developing nukes
- Liberman: Tal Law can’t be extended one hour
- Ex-IAEA official: Iran using old nuke technology
- Protect Mount of Olives, Americans tell Knesset
- One in four citizens lacks access to bomb shelters
- Histadrut declares airlines labor dispute
- Begin: We’ll ask for delay in Migron evacuation
- ‘Israel has destroyed Iran nuclear infrastructure’
- Palestinians Plan New March on Israel’s Borders
- Israel, Kurdish fighters destroyed Iran nuclear facility, email released by WikiLeaks claims
- Israel draws plan for 475-kilometer rail network in West Bank
- Thailand police detains another Iranian suspect in Bangkok bombing
- Tragedy strikes Israel’s London-based tourist office
- 20 killed in fresh Syria violence as Assad opposition forces splits
- Yemen’s Saleh warns of ‘difficult phase’ as he steps down after 33-year rule
- Putin: An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will cause ‘catastrophic’ outcome
- Assad forces fire heavy barrage in Syria’s Homs, two dead
- Israel report: West Bank Palestinians may turn to violence if peace talks freeze persists
- Netanyahu: Abbas speech on Jerusalem was ‘incitement’
- Mahmoud Abbas’ ‘bag of fibs’
- Settlers can’t always get what they want, says Begin
- Netanyahu slams Abbas on east Jerusalem comments
- WikiLeaks posts email claiming Israel struck Iran nuclear sites
- Iranian defense minister vows to strengthen Lebanese Army
- Turkey demands further restrictions on Israeli cargo flights
- Thai police question another Iranian in bomb probe
- Netanyahu says Iran to top agenda in talks with Obama
- Netanyahu Blasts Abbas’ Speech as Irresponsible Incitement
- Erasing Jewish History on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem
- Don’t Bet Against Israel on Iran
- The Return of the Israel Apartheid Week Cult
- Israeli Anti-Apartheid Week Contributes to Hatred
- U.S. Does Not Believe Iran Is Trying to Build Nuclear Bomb
- Islamists Dominate in Egypt’s Upper House Vote
- Assad’s Evil Endgame
- “Global March to Jerusalem” Forms Board in Iran
- Iran integrates Arab countries into its economic empire
What Will You Do with the Rest of Your Life? deals with a question that every Christian has to consider: what should I do with my life? Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
- Buffett: Stocks still cheap, best investment choice
- Merkel: ‘Incalculable’ Damage If Greek Plan Rejected
- World Bank warns China on growth fears
- Why Gasoline Prices Are So Different Around US
- Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Increase a More-Than-Estimated 2%
- Euro Zone Finance Ministers to Discuss Greece on March 1
- Banks Win Reprieve on Home Equity Loans in Settlement: Mortgages
- Economists see more reasons for optimism this year
- Poll: 75 percent of Americans think wealthy should pay 30 percent or less in taxes
- Karzai’s Response to Obama’s Apology: Put U.S. Troops on Trial and Punish Them
- White House Explains Obama Apology to Karzai
- Afghan Koran backlash threatens US mission
- FLASHBACK: BIBLES BURNED AT U.S. BASE IN AFGHANISTAN, ZERO PEOPLE KILLED
- Car Bomb Hits Afghan Airport
- Why Obama Won’t Back a Strike on Iran
- Analysts Divided over Putin Assassination Plot
- Putin Assassination Plot Foiled by Russian, Ukrainian Agents
- Putin Assassination Plot: Credible Threat or Pre-Election Ploy?
- Syria Says Voters Back New Constitution, Fresh Violence Kills 10
- Merkel urges German lawmakers to back Greek bailout
- EU Widens Syria Sanctions With Freeze on Central Bank’s Assets
- How serious is the bombast from North Korea?
- Iran nuclear program faltering because of old technology: UN watchdog
- Former Spanish judge acquitted of abusing power
- A year after Mubarak’s ouster, fear and suspicion grip Egypt
- Pressure builds for civilian drone flights at home
- Pelosi’s ‘Message to Church:’ ‘Catholic Women…From 14…Or Younger…Are Practicing Birth Control’
- Santorum Rips Obama ‘Weakness,’ Makes Political Hay of Quran Burning
- USA Today poll shows Obama trailing Romney and Santorum in swing states
- PPP: Romney with edge in Michigan, crushing lead in Arizona
- Climate McCarthyism: Democrat Congressman Demands Hearing on Interior Employee Linked to Heartland
- Climate denial in the classroom
- Police Chief: 1 Student Killed, 4 Injured In High School Shooting
- Romney erases Santorum’s lead in the Gallup national poll
- Video of the Day: John F. Kennedy’s 1960 Religion Speech
- Obama urges governors to boost education funding
- Wisconsin governor will not challenge recall signatures
- NYPD head not sorry about NJ Muslim surveillance
- Michael Barone: Romney, Santorum Represent Different White Americas
- Star Parker: Despite Attacks, Conservative Support For Santorum Will Grow
- Mike Adams: Dean Faces Bad News for Banning Good News
- John Ransom: The 99% That’s Not You Gets a $7,000 Cash Bailout Bonus
- Katie Kieffer: How Santorum Fails Constitution 101
- Daniel J. Mitchell: What’s the Difference between a Libertarian, a Supply-Sider, a Keynesian, and an IMF Bureaucrat?
- Political Calculations: Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler?
- Bob Beauprez: Green – the Color of Rotten Corruption
- George Friedman: Shooting in Afghan Interior Ministry Occurs at a Crucial Time
- Neal McCluskey: Climate Debate Will Burn Public Schools
- Chris Edwards: Obama’s Tax Proposals Would Make the Tax Code More Complicated, Less Fair
- Tad DeHaven: Postal Service Stuck with Govt Biz Model
- Lisa M. Krieger: Latest scientific ‘game-changer’ in abortion debate, out this week, will send ended pregnancies soaring but prevent heartache, suffering
- Dan Hinkel: Obama assassinated? Don’t rule it out, rants Farrakhan
- Rick Newman: 3 Upsides to Lousy Government
- David Shribman: The turnout threat: when voters vamoose
- George Will: The ghosts of Watergate
- Jack Kelly: The great ‘warmist’ caper: Global warming activists get caught conniving
- Examiner Editorial: Tell America the whole truth about gas prices, Mr. President
- Hugh Hewitt: Bigotry of Charles Blow and the New York Times
- Timothy P. Carney: Romney uses Specter to spook Santorum’s supporters
- Troop deaths muddy U.S. exit strategy
- Santorum assails Obama on higher education, JFK on church and state
- Mormons often quiet about support for Romney
- Romney, Santorum battle for upper hand
- Governors size up nomination fight
- Deficit expansion plans
- Fighting bribery of foreign officials
- Plot to kill Putin foiled, Russian state TV reports
- Colombia’s FARC rebels say they’ll stop kidnapping
- Three die in train derailment in Ontario
- Pentagon builds auditing army as budget shrinks
- Sarkozy challenger Hollande finds a following
- More violence as Syrians vote in referendum
- Rain postpones Daytona 500 for first time in history
- Iran condemns desecration of Quran by U.S. forces in Afghanistan
- Iran supports efforts to accelerate reform process in Syria: Salehi
- Japan regards Iran as an important energy supplier: ambassador
- Iran’s strategic policy is to strengthen Lebanese army: defense minister
- Bushehr nuclear plant to become fully operational in months
- Iranian FM heads for Geneva to attend Human Rights Council session
- IMF sees higher oil prices as new global risk
- Iran’s crude steel output grows by 11 percent
- Fruit of Arab Spring lands in hands of Hamas
- Fatah-Hamas deal, a fragile reconciliation but no panacea
If You Voted for Obama in 2008 to Prove You’re Not a Racist, You Need to Vote for Someone Else in 2012 to Prove You’re Not an Idiot explains why voters in the United States need to elect someone besides Barack Obama to lead them. Whoever is elected President of the United States in 2012 will have to contend with the monumental problems that Obama’s misguided policies have caused both at home and abroad. One thing is certain, though. It should not be Barack Obama. Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
- Here Comes Obama’s 3 AM Phone Call
- The Deal Between Romney and Paul?
- Learning the Wrong Lessons From the Fort Hood Massacre
- Spreading the Wealth Around Gets Personal
- The Audacity of Ambition
- So Now It’s the Lacrosse Murder
- The Most Important Election of Our Lifetime
- Mittmentum: Romney retakes national lead from Santorum
- Abbas gins up anti-Israel incitement about Jerusalem to foment a third intifada
- Anti-Gun Fascism in Canada
- 4 NATO soldiers injured in car bomb blast at military airport in Afghanistan
- BBC chief admits anti-Christian bias
- Rasmussen: 55% oppose affirmative action for admissions
- Qur’an Burning and Destructive Double Standards
- Obama: Sharia Enforcer
- The Ghettoization of Hollywood
- University of New Mexico Occupiers’ War on Free Speech
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz Empowers a Radical Muslim Fundraiser
- Sacha Baron Cohen and the Oscars
- Returning to Terror
- Richard Falk’s Imagination Gone Wild
- Building America’s ‘Space Fence’
- Uganda: Muslim Converts to Christianity Under Attack
- Religiously Disputing Big Government
- Why the Climate Skeptics Are Winning
- ‘America’s Iranian Self-Deception’
- Michigan Mo?
- Aerial Syrian Blockade?
- Wilson, FDR, Reagan, Clinton, . . . ?
- Free Syria
- Romney Sips Some Tea
- Never Met a Tax He Didn’t Like
- Old hands
- Sonia has left the building
- Nothing to fear but the lack of fear itself
- Some detect recovery in the euro zone. But if leaders make mistakes there may be a relapse
- Faith that private-sector losses on Greek bonds are a one-off is hard to sustain
- It’s hard to find anyone who is impressed by the Greek debt deal
- Syrian army shells northern towns
- Deadly bombing at Afghan airport
- ‘Putin assassination plot foiled’
- US and South Korea in joint drill
- G20 seeks eurozone bailout boost
- Wikileaks reveals Stratfor emails
- Osama Bin Laden site demolished
- ‘Tight race’ in Senegal election
- Bad breath used as stem cell tool
- Stratforgate: WikiLeaks releases ‘shadow CIA’ mail
- China: US has no moral right to ‘protect’ Arabs
- Putin assassination plan foiled (VIDEO)
- Bin demolished: Pakistan destroys Osama’s residence (VIDEO)
- US, S. Korea start war-game of nerves and threats
- ‘IAEA works with spies, but checks data independently’ – former chief
- ‘Greece in death spiral’
- Chinese breach Great Firewall of China and Occupy Obama
- Death toll climbs on Day 6 of Afghan rage over Koran burning
- New Mediterranean oil and gas bonanza
- Controversy over Iran cutting oil flow to Greece
- DPRK denounces US-S Korea joint military exercises
- Scientists: Space may swarm with homeless planets
- 10 killed, 12 injured in E. Afghan airport suicide blast
- Yemen’s Saleh hands over power to new president Hadi
- Russian, Ukrainian agents foil plot against Putin
- Australia’s leadership drama over
- Muslim Religious Authority Plans “Huge Mosque” on Temple Mount
- Michigan Primary Preview: A Two-Horse Race
- Economist Colors 2012 Purple with Third-Party White House Bid
- Slow ‘Recovery,’ Dire Consequences
- Michigan and Ohio: Big Tests for Romney and Santorum
- Can Brady Campaign’s New President Save Them?
- Occupiers Foreclose on Wells Fargo’s CEO John Stumpf, ‘Auction Off’ His Home
- Only Government Employees Should Carry Guns!!!
- NATO Agrees to Prosecutions for Koran Burnings
- Combating Media Manipulation: Just Say ‘No’
- Not Walking the JFK Way
- Santorum: Romneycare ‘In Some Respects’ Worse than Obamacare
- Innovate or Legislate
- Rape, They Cried
- Persian Paradoxes
- Obama’s Education Priorities
- Condoleezza Rice: Chapter 1
- Australia’s Gillard survives challenge
- Gujarat survivors demand justice
- One-minute World News
- Plea for Syria press photographer
Yahweh to Jeremiah—Jeremiah 16: 21
“Therefore behold, I am going to make them know—this time I will make them know My power and My might; and they shall know that My name is Yahweh.”
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- Santorum Should Take a Tip from JFK
- Sting and the Police State
- Survey Says: Santorum’s Social Views Killing Him in Michigan
- Rick Santorum, Culture Warrior
God also said to Moses, “Say to the Israelites, ‘Yahweh, the God of your fathers—the God of Abraham, the God of Isaac and the God of Jacob—has sent me to you.’ This [Yahweh] is my name forever, the name by which I am to be remembered from generation to generation.”
Exodus 3: 15